More Post-primary Analysis on Democratic Voting Patterns in Ohio

I'd like to think the reporters at Dayton Daily News are reading this blog. Their piece today on the blue Ohio map follows up perfectly on what I wrote Wednesday after the Ohio primary.

The trend I noticed in the Ohio 3rd occurred state wide as well--66 of Ohio's 88 counties cast more Democratic ballots, according to the DDN. Their piece specifically describes Mercer County, and having lived there for a couple of years, I know it's not as solidly Republican as some would have you believe. The DDN cites the Ohio GOP feeling pretty secure about Mercer County:

"I don't think we're looking through rose-colored glasses by saying that Mercer County is a Republican county, no matter what the primary results may show," said John McClelland, a spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party.

I don't disagree--but the point remains that presidential candidates depend on large margins in places like Mercer County to win Ohio, and any substantial cut into those majorities seriously undermine GOP chances in November. The interesting results are that large numbers of independent voters crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary.

According to the National Election Pool Exit Poll by Edison/Mitofsky, 9 percent of the ballots cast in the Democratic primary came from voters who identified themselves as Republicans, while 22 percent said they were independents.

Those are substantial numbers, and they appeared to be even higher in SW Ohio. The other important point to remember is that this follows a "bluing" of Ohio that began in 2006. The DDN quotes Sherrod Brown on that fact:

But Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, isn't so quick to dismiss the theory of shifting political sands. He argues that a Democratic sea change began in 2006, when both he and Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland were elected. "People want change and John McCain is going to lose," he said. "This mountain is too high for him to climb."